If you are a fan of Nicholas Taleb’s books just like me, you know that things like market predictions, fearing or crying about financial armageddons, and all that other noise about the behavior of the market is non-productive, speculation and basically a complete waste of time.
Ok, you may know that already even if you are not a fan of Taleb, or maybe don’t know him at all. The reason I bring Taleb up though is that I actually saw three Black Swans (Cygnus atratus) at a lake in a park the other day. You ask for a proof? Well, here is the first thing: I didn’t make any pictures (I actually RARELY make any pictures – I also RARELY have my cell/smart phone with me anyways. True story, I’m not really a user of a smart phone – I’m more one of these guys who look out the window in the bus… but, that’s not the point here).
Anyway, whether you believe me or not, it immediately reminded me of the book „The Black Swan“ by Taleb.
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What Is A Black Swan
The term “Black Swan” not only describes a rare and unpredictable event that has a major impact on society and the world, but, more interestingly, black swans were thought to be non-existent – until they were discovered in Australia first. The term is a classic demonstration about the fallacy of assuming that something cannot exist simply because it has not been observed (yet). Similarly, „Black Swan“ events are described as events unpredictable which have a significant impact on our lives and the world around us. “Funny” though: they are often rationalized after the fact. Taleb uses as examples of „Black Swan“ events like the 9/11 terrorist attacks or the global financial crisis of 2008.
So the point he makes is that traditional forecasting and risk management methods are insufficient for dealing with these events, which can have profound and unpredictable consequences. He suggests that instead of trying to predict the future, we should focus on building resilience and robustness in our personal and professional lives. The book also explores the flaws of our cognitive biases and the illusion of our own knowledge and understanding of the world.
“Almost all the history of thoughts is about what we know, or think we know. The Black Swan is the very first attempt (that I know of) in the history of thought to provide a map of where we get hurt by what we don’t know, to set systematic limits to the fragility of knowledge – and to provide exact locations where these maps no longer work.”
Thrive
What has ZEN to do with that? Let’s say Zen is associated with the practice of simplicity, directness, and non-dualistic thinking (the classic dualistic thinking is day/night, good/bad, small/large etc.).
Imagine just for fun you were a complete enlightened ZEN-Master. You can use any cliché of an old guy with grey hair or long beard to make it more vivid. This ZEN-Master happened to experience a Black Swan, a bearish stock market, a bubble in the real-estate market, whatever. But he just lost a bunch of money. What’s in your imagination about his reaction?
Now return back to you. You happen to experience a Black Swan, a bearish stock market, a bubble in the real-estate market, whatever. But you just lost a bunch of money. What’s your imagination about your reaction?
Is there a difference between the (imagined) reaction of the ZEN-Master and yours? I bet there is.
Is there a difference in the event, in the situation? No.
The bottom line is, that it is not the event which controls your inner state, but only you. Even Black Swans events are in the end only „events“. The only difference is that the mind goes even more crazy (than usually) because it has never dealt with such an event before and therefore is desperate for finding a solution.
And when that happens, when the mind goes crazy to find a solution, in what state would you rather be? In a simple, direct and non-dualistic state from where you react or emotional, anxious and reactive?
You can grab a copy of the book on Amazon through this affiliate link right here
If you have no books of Taleb so far, I recommend the box of his four most important titles (this boxset will save you some money)
And if you are a bibliophile like me, you may wanna have this luxury edition of the boxset